Wisconsin GDP Revised Up (lots!)

Wisconsin GDP grew at 4.2% SAAR in Q2. The 2023Q4 determine was raised 2.7% by the annual replace (the corresponding determine for US GDP was 1.2%).

Determine 1: Wisconsin GDP, post-update (daring darkish blue), pre-update (mild blue), and Wisconsin Financial Outlook forecast for 2024 (crimson), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, DoR.

As within the nationwide replace, a big portion of the revision appears to have been pushed by earlier undercounting of revenue (see this submit). Right here’s disposable revenue for Wisconsin, pre- and post-update.

Determine 1: Wisconsin complete private revenue, post-update (daring darkish blue), pre-update (mild blue), in billion $, SAAR. Supply: BEA.

The hole in complete private revenue in 2023Q4 is 1.9%.

Word that the roughly 3% decline in Wisconsin GDP registered 2022Q4-23Q2 is deleted, changed with a roughly 0.3% decline in 2022Q4-23Q1. Therefore, the WisGOP declared recession of 2023 disappears.

Right here’s a snapshot of financial indicators for Wisconsin, together with up to date information for GDP and wages and salaries, in addition to early benchmark for NFP:

Determine 3: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark for NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), actual wages and salaries, deflated by nationwide chained CPI (mild blue), GDP (crimson), coincident index (inexperienced), all in logs 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.