DWD experiences on April figures. This permits for the next image of Wisconsin macro aggregates.
Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), actual wages and salaries linearly interpolated, deflated by nationwide chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (pink), coincident index (inexperienced), all in logs 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and creator’s calculations.
The unemployment charge really fell from 3.0% to 2.9%, whereas the estimated labor drive rose (preserving in thoughts the problems related to the state degree family survey primarily based sequence).
Employment is presently outstripping the (upwardly revised) February Financial Outlook forecast.
Determine 2: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (daring black), Nov. ’23 Wisconsin Financial Outlook forecast (gentle inexperienced), Feb ’24 (gentle blue), in 000’s, s.a. Supply: DWD, DoRWisconsin Financial Outlook (varied points).Â
Given the pretty sturdy employment development, it’s shocking that perceptions of financial circumstances in Wisconsin are so bleak (whilst perceptions of particular person monetary circumstances are fairly sanguine).
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