Why Europe is crossing its fingers as America heads to the polls

Good morning. As we speak, I write on how Europe is ready — or a minimum of is telling itself it has ready — for the US election, and our parliament correspondent has information on the newest crackdown on Chinese language on-line retailers.

Judgment day

In 2020, European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen’s cupboard arrange a particular TV room within the EU’s headquarters to look at the US election outcomes roll in. This time, her aides can be sensible to ensure there’s area to cover behind the couch.

Context: America goes to the polls at the moment to elect their subsequent president, with Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris in a digital useless warmth, in keeping with many of the opinion polling. The greenback and US authorities debt yields fell yesterday in indicators traders had pared their bets on a Trump victory, as each candidates targeted their ultimate hours of campaigning on the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.

Months of pearl-clutching, prophecies and tried preparations by the EU for a potential return of President Trump finish at the moment as polls open, in a race that would have seismic impacts on European defence, commerce and generations of transatlantic coverage.

“In 2016, we were basically hoping for the best,” mentioned one senior EU diplomat, referring to Trump’s first election. “Now, at least there has been some preparation . . . in theory.”

That preparation has been finished by main EU capitals, but in addition contained in the fee. A small working group arrange earlier this 12 months has drawn up potential response methods to Trump, together with a pre-cooked commerce deal to keep away from his menace to impose blanket import tariffs, and potential initiatives to partially offset any withdrawal of US navy help to Europe.

However most senior officers across the EU are privately sceptical concerning the tangible advantages of such work, apart from offering a theoretical consolation blanket ought to Trump win.

“We say we know what he is like,” mentioned a senior EU official concerned within the Trump-proofing talks. “[But] we don’t know what he is like.”

Many additionally warning towards the complacency of decoding victory for Harris as a significant aid for the EU. On structural, long-term points corresponding to Europe’s widening competitiveness hole with the US and its over-reliance on America for defence and safety, the EU must push forward with cures no matter who’s the subsequent US president.

In line with inner assessments seen by the Monetary Occasions, the fee believes {that a} Harris administration would broadly proceed Joe Biden’s strategy, together with current delicate protectionist insurance policies and viewing China as the main geopolitical precedence, even when meaning collateral harm towards Europe.

“Whoever wins those elections, we will work with Kamala Harris, we will work with Donald Trump. I have no doubt,” Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte mentioned yesterday.

Although Rutte supplied a reasonably sobering reference to again up his confidence: “It is in our interest here, but also in the United States’, because they are not in this to repeat the mistake after the first world war of withdrawing from Europe.”

Gulp.

Chart du jour: Deindustrialisation

Over the previous three years, Europe’s largest economic system has slowly however steadily sunk into disaster. However what is going on now could be “unprecedented”.

Unboxing

It’s “almost impossible to control” the contents of parcels coming into the EU from China and elsewhere, the EU’s incoming commerce commissioner has admitted, because the bloc tries to raised police international on-line retailers, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Shoppers are more and more ordering low cost items from web sites corresponding to China’s Temu and Shein. The European Fee has launched an investigation into Temu for allegedly promoting counterfeit items.

Maroš Šefčovič advised a European parliament affirmation listening to yesterday that the EU needed to introduce a proposed new customs regime two years early, in 2026 reasonably than 2028, because the variety of packages hits 4bn this 12 months.

He mentioned some imports, most of which arrive by airplane, had been harmful and didn’t adjust to EU requirements.

When requested by Inexperienced MEP Anna Cavazzini what the EU ought to do concerning the “unsafe and illegal goods flooding our market”, Šefčovič mentioned it was “almost impossible to control without proper tools”.

The deliberate reform would introduce an EU customs authority and centralise information. It might additionally scrap a threshold exempting objects price lower than €150 from duties. In 2023, 2.3bn in customs-exempt objects had been imported into the EU, in keeping with the fee.

However member states have opposed the brand new laws for years, over fears of transferring extra powers to Brussels. Šefčovič now needs them to agree a joint place within the first half of subsequent 12 months, so it will possibly come into drive the next 12 months.

He additionally mentioned nationwide enforcement groups for product security wanted extra coaching and co-ordination.

What to look at at the moment

1. EU finance ministers meet.

2. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte meets Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome.

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