NBER BCDC indicators, different indicators, weekly indicators, nowcasts. As one who famous the excessive probability of recession by August 2024, I can’t see a downturn within the present vintages of (preliminary) knowledge.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (purple), private earnings excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring mild inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10/1/2024 launch), and creator’s calculations.
Determine 2: Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (daring blue), civilian employment adjusted utilizing CBO immigration estimates via mid-2024 (orange), manufacturing manufacturing (purple), private earnings excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (mild inexperienced), retail gross sales in 1999M12$ (black), automobile miles travelled (chartreuse), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Early benchmark is official NFP adjusted by ratio of early benchmark sum-of-states to CES sum of states. Supply: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve, NHTSA through FRED, BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, and creator’s calculations.
Determine 3: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), and Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% pattern (tan), all y/y development price in %. Supply: NY Fed through FRED, WECI, accessed 10/6, and creator’s calculations.
Determine 4: GDP (daring black), Abstract of Financial Projections median iterated off of third launch (inverted mild inexperienced triangle), GDPNow as of 10/1 (mild blue sq.), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (purple triangles), St Louis Fed information nowcast as of 10/4 (pink x), Goldman Sachs monitoring as of 10/3 (inexperienced +), FT-Sales space as of 9/14 iterated off of third launch (blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Ranges calculated by iterating development price on ranges of GDP, apart from Survey of Skilled Forecasters. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and creator’s calculations.
Even taking NFP preliminary benchmark at face worth, most indicators are rising — even alternate options (besides maybe retail gross sales). Excessive frequency indicators (weekly) are close to pattern via knowledge accessible as of 9/28. Lastly, nowcasts, apart from St. Louis Fed’s, are indicating above pattern (2%) development in Q3.
Addendum (12:25 PT):
Bonus Indicator: Sahm Rule (actual time) declines to threshold. Notice that peak index due largely to extend in labor pressure dimension, fairly than unemployed (as was the case in earlier episodes, see dialogue right here).
Determine 5: Actual time Sahm rule indicator (black, left scale), and contributions to alter in unemployment price, from elevated labor pressure (blue bar, proper scale), from larger variety of unemployed (brown bar, proper scale), all in share factors. Supply: FRED, BLS through FRED, and creator’s calculations.
