State Employment Report for August

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Unemployment rises in lots of states, however so does employment (NFP) development (report).

Right here’s the diffusion index (imply at 25) for 3 month unemployment charge change.

Supply: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.

The dashed line is Wells Fargo’s evaluation of the edge for nationwide recession primarily based on this indicator.

How’s nonfarm payroll employment doing? Right here’s the m/m change, by state.

growth payemsbystate 1

Supply: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.

Month-on-Month figures are noisy, so listed here are year-on-year (with battleground states outlined in blue):

yoynfpemplgrowthstatebystate

Supply: BLS, 20 Sept 2024, as edited by writer.

For reference, y/y nationwide NFP development was 1.5%. Therefore, 5 of seven battleground states had been above the nationwide common, with Michigan lagging.

 

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