From BOFIT:
Determine 1: In March, manufacturing dropped in virtually all of Russia’s central industries. Sources: CEIC, Rosstat and BOFIT.
From the article (translated by way of Google.Translate):
In March (seasonally adjusted), manufacturing declined barely in virtually all key industries in comparison with the earlier month. Yearly, manufacturing continued to develop in most industries, however extra slowly than earlier than.
Additionally within the processing trade, annual manufacturing progress slowed to six % in March. Nonetheless, the processing trade was the one one of many key industries the place manufacturing additionally elevated on a month-to-month foundation (seasonally adjusted). The expansion of the processing trade has continued to be pushed particularly by industries associated to the struggle. To start with of the yr, their manufacturing has seen one other progress spurt after slowing down on the finish of final yr. The function of war-related industries in Russia’s latest financial growth has additionally been examined in a latest BOFIT weblog.
Regardless of the financial system being on a struggle footing, manufacturing appears unable to maintain up with battlefield losses. From ISW at present:
Current satellite tv for pc imagery of depleted Russian navy car and weapon storage amenities additional signifies that Russia is at the moment sustaining its struggle effort largely by pulling from storage moderately than by manufacturing new autos and sure weapons at scale. Newsweek reported on Might 8 {that a} social media supply monitoring Russian navy depots said that satellite tv for pc imagery signifies that Russia’s car shops have considerably decreased from pre-war ranges by practically 32 % from 15,152 in 2021 to 10,389 as of Might 2024.[11] The navy depot tracker famous that Russia has pulled most from its shops of MT-LB multipurpose armored combating autos (AFVs), that are down from 2,527 prewar to 922 remaining; BMD airborne amphibious tracked infantry combating autos (IFVs), that are down from 637 prewar to 244 remaining; and BTR-50 armored personnel carriers (APCs), down from 125 prewar to 52 remaining. The navy depot tracker famous that Russia now not has newer mannequin BTR-60s, 70s, and 80s in storage and that solely 2,605 stay — doubtless referring to autos at the moment fielded — from its prewar shares of three,313. The navy depot tracker famous that Russia is at the moment fielding 1,000–2,000 of its remaining MT-LBs in Ukraine. One other open-source account on X (previously Twitter) cited satellite tv for pc imagery dated Might 27, 2020 and March 26, 2024 and concluded that Russia has pulled roughly 60 % of its artillery programs at an unspecified towed artillery storage base, reportedly one in every of Russia’s largest.[12] The supply reported that about half of the remaining artillery programs at this base are doubtless unusable because of degradation whereas in storage and since lots of the remaining programs are Second World Conflict period artillery programs incompatible with trendy ammunition.[13]
Russia is counting on huge Soviet-era shops of autos and different tools to maintain operations and losses in Ukraine at a stage far larger than the present Russian DIB might help, nor will Russia be capable of mobilize its DIB to replenish these shops for a few years. The British Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research (IISS) assume tank reported on February 12 that Russia is probably going in a position to maintain its present price of auto losses (over 3,000 armored combating autos yearly) for no less than two or three years by primarily reactivating autos from storage.[14] The IISS additionally estimated that Russia has misplaced over 3,000 armored combating autos in 2023 and shut to eight,000 armored combating autos since February 2022, and that Russia doubtless reactivated no less than 1,180 foremost battle tanks and about 2,470 infantry combating autos and armored personnel carriers pulled from storage in 2023.[15] Ukrainian navy observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on February 4 that the Russian protection industrial base (DIB) can produce 250–300 new and modernized tanks per yr and restore a further 250–300 tanks per yr.[16] Russia will doubtless wrestle to adequately provide its items with materiel in the long run with out transferring the Russian financial system to a wartime footing — a transfer that Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to keep away from to this point.[17]
