by Calculated Threat on 10/29/2024 05:30:00 PM
The Census Bureau launched the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2024 in the present day.
The outcomes of this survey had been considerably distorted by the pandemic in 2020.
This report is incessantly talked about by analysts and the media to trace family formation, the homeownership fee, and the home-owner and rental emptiness charges. Nonetheless, there are critical questions in regards to the accuracy of this survey.
This survey may present the pattern, however I would not depend on absolutely the numbers. Analysts most likely should not use the HVS to estimate the surplus vacant provide or family formation, or depend on the homeownership fee, besides as a information to the pattern.
Nationwide emptiness charges within the third quarter 2024 had been 6.9 % for rental housing and 1.0 % for
home-owner housing. The rental emptiness fee was not statistically completely different from the speed within the third quarter
2023 (6.6 %) and never statistically completely different from the speed within the second quarter 2024 (6.6 %).The home-owner emptiness fee of 1.0 % was greater than the speed within the third quarter 2023 (0.8 %)
and never statistically completely different from the speed within the second quarter 2024 (0.9 %).The homeownership fee of 65.6 % was not statistically completely different from the speed within the third quarter 2023
(66.0 %) and just about the identical as the speed within the second quarter 2024 (65.6 %).
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The HVS homeownership fee was unchanged at 65.6% in Q3, from 65.6% in Q2. Â
The ends in Q2 and Q3 2020 had been distorted by the pandemic and needs to be ignored.
The HVS home-owner emptiness elevated to 1.0% in Q3 from 0.9% in Q2.
As soon as once more – this most likely exhibits the overall pattern, however I would not depend on absolutely the numbers.
The home-owner emptiness fee declined sharply through the pandemic and contains properties which are vacant and on the market (so this mirrors the low however growing ranges of present dwelling stock).
The rental emptiness fee was elevated to six.9% in Q3 from 6.6% in Q2. That is up from the low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022.
The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, however there are various questions in regards to the accuracy of this survey.
