by Calculated Danger on 4/26/2024 08:57:00 AM
Here’s a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, each via March 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 5.6% year-over-year in March, down from 5.8% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in March, down barely from 5.8% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Since asking rents are principally flat year-over-year, these measures will proceed to gradual over the following yr.
The second graph reveals PCE costs, Core PCE costs and Core ex-housing during the last 6 months (annualized):
Key measures are barely above the Fed’s goal on a 6-month foundation.
PCE Value Index: 2.5% (6 month annualized)
Core PCE Costs: 3.0%
Core minus Housing: 2.4%
