No menu items!

    Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”

    Date:

    Share post:

    Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out right now; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS monitoring unchanged at 3.2%.

    Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Abstract of Financial Projections median iterated off of third launch (inverted gentle inexperienced triangle), GDPNow as of 10/9 (gentle blue sq.),  NY Fed nowcast as of 10/11 (pink triangles),  St Louis Fed information nowcast as of 10/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs monitoring as of 10/9 (inexperienced +), FT-Sales space as of 9/14 iterated off of third launch (blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Ranges calculated by iterating development price on ranges of GDP, apart from Survey of Skilled Forecasters. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and creator’s calculations.

    The Lewis-Merten-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (for knowledge out there by 10/5) is at 2.10% AR, whereas the corresponding Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index is at -0.11% (so 1.89% if 2% is development). Onerous to see a recession in knowledge out there by early October, then.

    Lastly, with these estimates out, I welcome a brand new member to the “recession camp”: Mike Shedlock. As well as, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge have backdated the recession’s begin to 2022.

     

    Related articles

    US farmers ‘prepare for the worst’ in new Trump commerce warfare

    Aaron Lehman’s soyabean farm within the heartland of Iowa looks like an oasis of calm within the turbulence...

    ‘Neutral’ charge not driving financial coverage, say ECB officers

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest without costRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite tales on this weekly...

    Calculated Threat: Friday: Employment Report

    by Calculated Threat on 2/06/2025 07:48:00 PM Word: Mortgage charges are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for prime tier...

    Trump’s tariff chaos threatens US power ambitions

    This text is an on-site model of our Power Supply e-newsletter. Premium subscribers can join right here to get...