Atlanta and NY Fed decrease progress charges for Q2
Determine 1: GDP as reported (daring black), GDPNow (gentle blue sq.) , NY Fed (pink triangle), Survey of Skilled Forecasters Might median (gentle inexperienced line), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Supply: BEA (2024Q1 2nd launch), Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
For a primary, the implied degree utilizing GDPNow is beneath the Might SPF, a results of downward revision in Q1 GDP and slower nowcasted progress.
The downward motion in nowcasts is pronounced. Contemplate GDPNow.
Supply: Atlanta Fed, accessed 3 June 2024.
The draw back shock on building and ISM manufacturing was the large mover — from 2.7% to 1.8% q/q SAAR in GDPNow. Goldman Sachs monitoring solely dropped 0.1 ppts by comparability.
That being stated, no recession is clear in Q2 nowcasts but. Nor in month-to-month indicators for April (see right here).
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