by Calculated Threat on 5/23/2024 10:00:00 AM
The Census Bureau stories New Residence Gross sales in April have been at a seasonally adjusted annual fee (SAAR) of 634 thousand.
The earlier three months have been revised down.
Gross sales of latest single‐household homes in April 2024 have been at a seasonally adjusted annual fee of 634,000, in line with
estimates launched collectively at present by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Division of Housing and City Improvement.
That is 4.7 % under the revised March fee of 665,000 and is 7.7 % under the April 2023 estimate of 687,000.
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The primary graph exhibits New Residence Gross sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the present gross sales fee.
New house gross sales have been near pre-pandemic ranges.
The second graph exhibits New Residence Months of Provide.
The months of provide elevated in April to 9.1 months from 8.5 months in March.
The all-time document excessive was 12.2 months of provide in January 2009. The all-time document low was 3.3 months in August 2020.
That is nicely above the highest of the traditional vary (about 4 to six months of provide is regular).
“The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of latest homes on the market on the finish of April was 480,000. This represents a provide of
9.1 months on the present gross sales fee.”
Gross sales have been nicely under expectations of 680 thousand SAAR, and gross sales for the three earlier months have been revised down. I will have extra later at present.
