Israeli cupboard set to vote on Gaza ceasefire deal

As we speak’s agenda: EU carmakers’ carbon credit score invoice; China’s GDP; Trump’s Treasury choose on taxes; UK share buybacks surge; and fantastic eating in Antarctica

Good morning. Israel’s cupboard is ready to vote at the moment on a multiphase ceasefire deal in Gaza, which incorporates an preliminary six-week truce and the return of some hostages beginning on Sunday. Right here’s what we all know.

What might scupper the deal? Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right companions are threatening to go away his authorities if it implements the deal. Nationwide safety minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stated his Jewish Energy occasion couldn’t again a “reckless” deal that ended the struggle earlier than Hamas was defeated, whereas finance minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Spiritual Zionism occasion might additionally comply with swimsuit and withdraw.

If each events pull out, Netanyahu’s coalition would lose its parliamentary majority. Israel’s political system doesn’t bar minority governments, and opposition events have stated they’re ready to prop up the prime minister’s coalition. However the departure of his allies would shake Netanyahu’s maintain on energy and will result in early elections.

Trying forward: Ought to the ceasefire maintain, Israel would emerge because the area’s superpower, writes Gideon Rachman, having devastated Hamas and Hizbollah and weakened Iran. However Israel has additionally suffered monumental reputational harm, with 46,000 individuals believed to have been killed in its offensive and Netanyahu charged with struggle crimes. By placing its weight behind the Biden-negotiated deal, the incoming Trump administration has additionally proven that it might not give Israel a totally free hand.

Right here’s extra from our chief international affairs columnist on what a ceasefire would imply for the world, and extra under on the way forward for Israel and Palestine:

• Life after struggle: The pleasure sweeping Gaza on the anticipated halt to a devastating battle is combined with grief over months of demise and destruction.

• Return of hostages: Households in Israel could lastly see their family members once more, however many don’t know if they’re even alive.

• Trump diplomacy: After months of impasse, right here’s how the incoming president and his chosen Center East envoy helped seal the deal.

And right here’s what else we’re retaining tabs on at the moment and over the weekend:

• Financial knowledge: The EU has its harmonised shopper worth index, the UK releases retail gross sales figures and the US publishes industrial manufacturing knowledge, all for December, at the moment.

• Trump inauguration: The incoming president will maintain a rally in Washington on Sunday forward of his swearing-in the subsequent day. Be a part of FT consultants and friends on Wednesday for a subscriber-only webinar as they focus on his return.

• Russia-Iran ties: Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian are anticipated to signal a strategic partnership pact in Moscow at the moment.

• Firms: State Avenue and SLB report outcomes at the moment. The oil providers group higher referred to as Schlumberger faces growing stress to exit Russia. A US ban on TikTok is because of take impact on Sunday.

How nicely did you retain up with the information this week? Take our quiz.

5 extra prime tales

1. Unique: European carmakers could possibly be compelled to pay lots of of thousands and thousands of euros to Chinese language electrical automobile rivals to purchase carbon credit because the sector tries to keep away from potential fines for failing to satisfy 2025 air pollution guidelines set by Brussels. Learn the complete story.

• China’s financial system: GDP rose 5 per cent final yr, assembly Beijing’s official progress goal as sturdy exports and stimulus efforts principally offset weak home demand.

2. Donald Trump’s Treasury choose stated he would deploy America’s financial energy in opposition to geopolitical foes as he defended the incoming president’s tariff threats and pushed for looser laws. Billionaire Scott Bessent additionally stated at a Senate affirmation listening to that failure to increase tax cuts would result in “economic calamity”.

• Extra Trump picks: Doug Burgum, nominee for inside secretary, warned the US might lose the “AI arms race” to China except it boosted power era from fossil fuels.

• ‘Personnel is policy’: Elaine Chao, former labour and transport secretary, writes about managing a tough presidential transition in her piece for the Monetary Occasions.

3. Unique: EU officers are weighing choices to safeguard its sanctions in opposition to Russia, together with enlisting the Belgian king’s assist by means of an 81-year-old regulation. The fallback measures are being drawn up after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán threatened to dam the sanctions’ renewal this month.

4. Former Financial institution of England governor Mark Carney has launched his bid for prime minister of Canada, the place voters stay indignant at Justin Trudeau’s dealing with of the financial system. Carney, who additionally ran Canada’s central financial institution, pledged to make the nation’s financial system the strongest within the G7. Right here’s extra from his first marketing campaign rally in Alberta.

• 🎧 Trump risk: Within the newest episode of his podcast, Gideon Rachman talks to Michael Ignatieff, the previous chief of Canada’s Liberal occasion, about its newly hostile neighbour.

5. Rio Tinto and Glencore held talks final yr about combining half or all of their companies, based on individuals conversant in the matter. The London-listed corporations engaged in early-stage talks as just lately as October however didn’t progress to a deal. A full-blown merger would rank among the many mining trade’s largest-ever transactions.

The Huge Learn

Younger persons are now not Taiwan’s most passionately patriotic and pro-independence residents, latest analysis signifies. Whereas there are a lot of potential causes for the change, one of many predominant causes, based on some social scientists and politicians, is TikTok. Is the controversial social media app pushing Taiwan’s youth nearer to China?

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• The Taliban: Pakistan’s hope that the brand new regime would show a extra co-operative ally has backfired, with violence surging to a nine-year excessive.

• California fires: Gaps within the state’s insurance coverage system might result in critical failures in protection for the Los Angeles firestorms, whereas leaving reinsurers just about unscathed.

• ESG below Trump: Will sustainable investing survive? Because the US president-elect returns, political backlash has elevated once more.

Chart of the day

British corporations are shopping for again their shares at a quicker fee than even US teams, adopting a apply that has drawn criticism for allegedly detracting from funding and innovation.

Take a break from the information . . . 

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