In a latest paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the height in GDP, correctly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Supply: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).
As famous on this submit, I can not — regardless of my finest efforts — replicate their outcomes (whereby they declare the suitable deflator for GDP is up 40% as a substitute of BEA reported 21.1%, sine 2019Q1). Nevertheless, if all we produced and consumed (by households, corporations, the federal government, and foreigners) was Huge MacTM‘s, then one may argue that we have now been in recession since 2022 (however are simply popping out in 2024Q2).
Determine 1: US GDP expressed in Huge Macs (brown, left log scale), and in bn.Ch.2017$ (black, proper log scale), each SAAR. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Huge Mac costs interpolated linearly from semi-annual reported costs. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, Economist, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Be aware that Antoni and St. Onge don’t present a spreadsheet of calculations to indicate how they obtained their 40% enhance in deflator.
