I carry on listening to folks like Home Speaker Mike Johnson saying how progress underneath Trump was the quickest. Nicely, simply evaluating in opposition to the final three and a half years, I ponder how this may be true. Utilizing the most recent obtainable BEA information:
Determine 1: GDP relative to 2021Q1 (blue), relative to 2017Q1 (tan), GDPNow as of 10/18 (gentle blue sq.), quarters into respective administrations, all in Ch.2017$. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, Atlanta Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Somebody will ask about per capita phrases. If one thinks about how inhabitants progress modified in the course of the Trump administration (pressured separations of migrant households and all that stuff), you would possibly suppose you realize the reply, however I’ll present you the per capita collection:
Determine 2: GDP per capita relative to 2021Q1 (blue), relative to 2017Q1 (tan), per capita GDPNow as of 10/18 (gentle blue sq.), quarters into respective administrations, all in Ch.2017$ per individual. Word: Assumed progress fee of inhabitants in Q3 similar as progress fee in Q2. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, Atlanta Fed, and creator’s calculations.
The race was tighter earlier than the annual replace. After all, there have been two consecutive quarters of unfavourable progress in 2022. That’s now not true (contra Heritage Basis’s EJ Antoni).
