The most recent CPI launch signifies a decline in food-at-home costs.
Determine 1: CPI (daring black), and meals at house part (mild blue), and ERS January forecast (blue sq.), all in logs, 2021M01=0. Supply: BLS, ERS, and writer’s calculations.
On the nationwide degree, the meals at house part has been dropping for 3 months now. The USDA’s Financial Analysis Service (ERS) forecast for end-of-year CPI has consequently declined barely.
The same sample of meals worth deceleration has occurred within the East North Central area (which encompasses Wisconsin).
Determine 2: East North Central CPI (daring black), and East North Central meals at house part (mild blue), all in logs, 2021M01=0. Collection seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing X-13 (log rework on degree). Supply: BLS, and writer’s calculations.
Nonetheless, as a result of the subregion’s total CPI has not risen as a lot as its nationwide counterpart, the food-at-home/total hole stays wider right here.
