Revised up 0.2 ppts, 0.2 ppts above consensus. Remaining gross sales up 0.2 ppts. GDO rises 2.1% q/q SAAR.
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (inexperienced), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO based mostly on 2nd launch. GDP+ iterated on 2019Q4 GDP stage. Supply: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (July launch), Atlanta Fed, writer’s calculations.
Determine 2: Quarter-on-Quarter progress of GDP (daring black), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue sq.), ultimate gross sales (crimson), all SAAR. GDP based mostly on second launch. Supply: BEA, Atlanta Fed, writer’s calculations.
So, GDP and ultimate gross sales progress exceeds development in Q2, and GDPNow as of three days in the past is at development. GDP > ultimate gross sales implies some retrenchment in Q3 given stock accumulation.
