by Calculated Danger on 11/01/2024 09:07:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the October employment report was under expectations, and August and September payrolls had been revised down by 112,000 mixed.  The participation fee and the employment inhabitants ratio declined, and the unemployment fee was unchanged at 4.1%.
Usually, retail corporations begin hiring for the vacation season in October, and actually improve hiring in November. Here’s a graph that exhibits the historic web retail jobs added for October, November and December by 12 months.
This graph actually exhibits the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had elevated again near extra regular ranges. Notice: I anticipate the long-term development will probably be down with an increasing number of web vacation buying.
Retailers employed 125 thousand staff Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) web in October. This was decrease than final 12 months and suggests barely much less actual retail gross sales this vacation season as final 12 months.
This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a lack of 6.4 thousand retail jobs in October.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Previous) Participation
Because the total participation fee is impacted by each cyclical (recession) and demographic (ageing inhabitants, youthful folks staying in class) causes, right here is the employment-population ratio for the important thing working age group: 25 to 54 years outdated.
The 25 to 54 years outdated participation fee decreased in October to 83.5% from 83.8% in September.
The 25 to 54 employment inhabitants ratio decreased to 80.6% from 80.9% the earlier month.
Common Hourly Wages
The graph exhibits the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all non-public workers from the Present Employment Statistics (CES). Â
Wage progress has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in October. Â
From the BLS report:
“The variety of folks employed half time for financial causes was little modified at 4.6 million
in October. These people would have most popular full-time employment however had been working half
time as a result of their hours had been lowered or they had been unable to search out full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 million from 4.62 million in September. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.7% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph exhibits the variety of staff unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
In line with the BLS, there are 1.61 million staff who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless need a job, essentialy unchanged from 1.63 million the earlier month.
That is above pre-pandemic ranges.
Job Streak
Via October 2024, the employment report indicated constructive job progress for 46 consecutive months, placing the present streak in a tie for third place of the longest job streaks in US historical past (since 1939). It seems this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that may revise down job progress).
| Headline Jobs, Prime 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Yr Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 tie | 2007 | 46 |
| 3 tie | 20241 | 46 |
| 5 | 1979 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the October employment report was under expectations, and August and September payrolls had been revised down by 112,000 mixed. The participation fee and the employment inhabitants ratio declined, and the unemployment fee was unchanged at 4.1%.
This report was impacted by strikes (particularly Boeing) and the hurricanes. This makes deciphering this report tough.
