by Calculated Threat on 1/10/2025 09:47:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the December employment report was properly above expectations, nevertheless, October and November payrolls have been revised down by 8,000 mixed.  The participation charge was unchanged, the employment inhabitants ratio elevated, and the unemployment charge decreased to 4.1%.
For the reason that general participation charge is impacted by each cyclical (recession) and demographic (getting old inhabitants, youthful individuals staying at school) causes, right here is the employment-population ratio for the important thing working age group: 25 to 54 years previous.
The 25 to 54 years previous participation charge decreased in December at 83.4% from 83.5% in November.
The 25 to 54 employment inhabitants ratio elevated to 80.5% from 80.4% the earlier month.
Common Hourly Wages
The graph exhibits the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all non-public workers from the Present Employment Statistics (CES). Â
Wage development has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% YoY in December. Â
From the BLS report:
“The variety of individuals employed half time for financial causes, at 4.4 million, modified
little in December and is little totally different from a yr earlier. These people would
have most popular full-time employment however have been working half time as a result of their hours had
been decreased or they have been unable to seek out full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 million from 4.47 million in November. This is close to the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.5% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph exhibits the variety of employees unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
In response to the BLS, there are 1.51 million employees who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless desire a job, down from 1.65 million the earlier month.
That is above pre-pandemic ranges.
Job Streak
By way of December 2024, the employment report indicated optimistic job development for 48 consecutive months, placing the present streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US historical past (since 1939). It seems this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that can revise down job development).
| Headline Jobs, High 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Yr Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2020 | 113 |
| 2 tie | 20241 | 48 |
| 2 tie | 1990 | 48 |
| 4 | 2007 | 46 |
| 5 | 1979 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the December employment report was properly above expectations, nevertheless, October and November payrolls have been revised down by 8,000 mixed. The participation charge was unchanged, the employment inhabitants ratio elevated, and the unemployment charge decreased to 4.1%.
A powerful employment report.
