by Calculated Danger on 6/07/2024 09:08:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the Could employment report was nicely above expectations, nevertheless March and April payrolls had been revised down by 15,000 mixed.  The participation charge and employment inhabitants ratio decreased, and the unemployment charge elevated to 4.0%.
Building employment elevated 21 thousand and is now 613 thousand above the pre-pandemic degree.Â
Manufacturing employment elevated 8 thousand and is now 185 thousand above the pre-pandemic degree.
Because the general participation charge is impacted by each cyclical (recession) and demographic (growing older inhabitants, youthful individuals staying at school) causes, right here is the employment-population ratio for the important thing working age group: 25 to 54 years outdated.
The 25 to 54 years outdated participation charge elevated in Could to 83.6% from 83.5% in April, and the 25 to 54 employment inhabitants ratio was unchanged at 80.8% from 80.8% the earlier month.
Common Hourly Wages
The graph exhibits the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all non-public workers from the Present Employment Statistics (CES). Â
Wage development has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in Could. Â
Half Time for Financial Causes
From the BLS report:
“The variety of individuals employed half time for financial causes, at 4.4 million, modified little
in Could. These people, who would have most well-liked full-time employment, had been working half
time as a result of their hours had been decreased or they had been unable to search out full-time jobs.“
The variety of individuals working half time for financial causes decreased in Could to 4.42 million from 4.47 million in April. That is barely above pre-pandemic ranges.
These staff are included within the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.4% from 7.4% within the earlier month. That is down from the report excessive in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the bottom degree on report (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This sequence began in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% degree in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph exhibits the variety of staff unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
In keeping with the BLS, there are 1.350 million staff who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless desire a job, up from 1.250 million the earlier month.
That is barely above pre-pandemic ranges.
Job Streak
By Could 2024, the employment report indicated optimistic job development for 41 consecutive months, placing the present streak in fifth place of the longest job streaks in US historical past (since 1939).
| Headline Jobs, Prime 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Yr Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 | 1979 | 45 |
| 5 | 20241 | 41 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the April employment report was nicely above expectations, nevertheless, March and April payrolls had been revised down by 15,000 mixed. The participation charge and the employment inhabitants ratio decreased, and the unemployment charge elevated to 4.0%. One other robust report.
