GDP below Bloomberg consensus of three.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it). ADP personal NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus at 110K.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring mild inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 1st launch, S&P International Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (10/1/2024 launch), and writer’s calculations.
Determine 2: Non-public nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), implied preliminary benchmark revision of personal NFP from BLS (pink), and ADP-Stanford Digital Financial system Lab personal nonfarm payroll employment (inexperienced), all in 000’s. Supply: BLS, ADP by way of FRED, and writer’s calculations.
Recall, the ADP numbers usually are not based mostly on a survey (so no points concerning the agency birth-death mannequin output, and many others.).
Determine 3: Month-on-Month progress fee of Non-public nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), implied preliminary benchmark revision of personal NFP from BLS (pink), and ADP-Stanford Digital Financial system Lab personal nonfarm payroll employment (inexperienced), and Bloomberg consensus (mild inexperienced sq.), all calculated utilizing log variations. Supply: BLS, ADP by way of FRED, Bloomberg, and writer’s calculations.
Contra EJ Antoni, Kevin Hassett, Larry Kudlow, Peter Thiel, and Wilbur Ross these don’t seem like recession numbers to me. Nonetheless, we get private revenue and consumption for September tomorrow, in addition to manufacturing and commerce industries gross sales for August.
