Buying and selling frenzy boosts brokerages and Wall Avenue banks

Good morning. On at the moment’s agenda:

• UK financial output unexpectedly falls

• SEC sues Cantor Fitzgerald

• Trump’s crypto bros

• 2024’s journey discoveries and disappointments

We finish this week with a take a look at how Donald Trump’s election win has sparked a buying and selling frenzy on Wall Avenue, as expectations for sweeping coverage modifications have added gasoline to a US inventory market rally.

Buying and selling volumes in US equities rose 38 per cent in November from the identical month in 2023, reaching ranges not seen for the reason that meme inventory craze of early 2021, in response to exchanges operator Cboe World Markets.

The surge in buying and selling exercise has benefited Wall Avenue banks and brokerages, most popular by retail purchasers. JPMorgan Chase’s retail banking chief mentioned its buying and selling revenues for the ultimate three months of 2024 had been set to rise greater than 15 per cent from a yr earlier — triple the 5 per cent forecast by analysts earlier than Trump’s win. Citigroup anticipates its fourth-quarter buying and selling income will rise as a lot as 19 per cent from a yr in the past.

In the meantime, retail dealer Robinhood mentioned fairness buying and selling volumes elevated 16 per cent between October and November and Interactive Brokers mentioned its every day common income trades rose 17 per cent.

There was an “incredible level” of investor curiosity in markets in current months, Rick Wurster, who is because of take the reins as chief govt of brokerage Charles Schwab, advised the Monetary Occasions. Right here’s extra on what the buying and selling surge means for banks and brokers.

• M&A: Dealmakers are gearing up for a strong comeback below Trump, however his antitrust appointments counsel a extra advanced actuality.

Right here’s what we’ll be watching at the moment and over the weekend:

• Nasdaq 100: The expertise index broadcasts its annual reshuffle of constituent shares.

• Syria: US secretary of state Antony Blinken meets his Turkish counterpart in an effort to safe a peaceable transition following the autumn of the Assad regime.

• 2026 World Cup: Fifa attracts the 12 European qualifying teams for the soccer match which might be held in North America.

• South Korea: Parliament will maintain a second vote on a movement to question President Yoon Suk Yeol tomorrow over his shortlived declaration of martial legislation final week.

• Georgia: The south Caucasus nation holds elections for a brand new president tomorrow, amid a political disaster over EU accession and a Russia-leaning authorities.

How properly did you retain up the information this week? Take our quiz.

5 extra prime tales

1. The UK economic system unexpectedly contracted in October, in a blow to the Labour authorities which stood on a manifesto pledge this summer season to “secure the highest sustained growth in the G7”. The 0.1 per cent contraction follows an identical decline the earlier month and signifies a gradual begin to the fourth quarter for the UK economic system. Sterling misplaced floor towards the greenback after the info was revealed.

2. The Tokyo Metropolitan Authorities will permit its workers to work a four-day week as authorities on this planet’s largest metropolis embrace the rising “four-on, three-off” motion in a radical experiment to reverse Japan’s low beginning fee. Right here’s extra on the undertaking, which is able to start in April 2025.

3. China’s Communist social gathering leaders spoke of the necessity for “vigorous” efforts to spice up consumption and home demand “in all directions” on the finish of an annual financial convention. The feedback spotlight a want in Beijing for the nation’s economic system to turn into much less dependent on exports in face of Donald Trump’s risk to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on Chinese language imports.

• Xi Jinping: President-elect Donald Trump has invited his Chinese language counterpart to his inauguration in January, in an early signal that he intends to renew the high-level engagement with President Xi that marked his first time period.

• Conflict video games: An additional build-up of US nuclear capabilities would have little impact on whether or not China may resort to utilizing nuclear weapons in a battle over Taiwan, the primary large-scale unclassified battle sport on such a situation has discovered.

4. The US securities regulator has sued Cantor Fitzgerald, the brokerage led by Donald Trump’s commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, for allegedly making deceptive statements to traders within the lead-up to 2 public choices that raised $750mn. Right here’s extra on what the Securities and Alternate Fee mentioned.

5. HSBC is reviewing its retail banking operations exterior the UK and Hong Kong, a transfer that would see it considerably reduce operations in some nations because it seeks additional price cuts. Mexico is without doubt one of the markets below evaluate, in response to folks aware of the discussions. Learn the complete story.

At the moment’s large learn

Most of the tycoons that survived the crypto crash of 2022 hitched their wagons to the Maga motion and poured cash into Donald Trump’s re-election marketing campaign. Philip Stafford and Nikou Asgari profile “the modern day Edisons and Wright Brothers and Carnegies and Henry Fords” because the president-elect described them this summer season.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• China’s ‘Trump cards’: US policymakers ought to assume extra concerning the some ways Beijing might retaliate towards potential tariff will increase, writes economist Stephen Roach.

• Poster youngster of DEI: The president-elect could also be unhealthy information for variety, fairness and inclusion, however his White Home picks exhibit its advantages, writes Stuart Kirk.

• The El Husseinys’ fall: A outstanding household made a fortune working for autocrats. Who was actually in charge when every little thing finally fell aside?

Chart of the day

The European Central Financial institution yesterday reduce rates of interest by a quarter-point to three per cent and decreased its eurozone development forecast for the subsequent three years. “The element which has changed is the downside risks, particularly the downside risks to growth,” mentioned ECB president Christine Lagarde following the choice. Nonetheless, she warned that the brand new forecasts didn’t embody Donald Trump’s risk to impose tariffs of as much as 20 per cent on all US imports, implying eurozone development may very well be even weaker.

Take a break from the information

From vineyards within the Andes to rhinos in Zimbabwe, writers together with Pico Ayer and historian William Dalrymple share their journey discoveries — and disappointments — of 2024.