From Polymarket, accessed 4pm CT immediately:
So low likelihood…alternatively, it is a bunch of non-American residents betting on a US financial occasion. For comparability, Polymarket (which can not function within the US) signifies 52-46 Trump/Harris, whereas PredictIt (which might function within the US) charges 52-52. Polymarket has constantly predicted the next chance of Trump profitable (vs. Harris) than PredicIt.
I have to confess some uncertainty in regards to the betting, since final result is to be decided by 12/31/2024, however we gained’t have This fall GDP till January 2025…Listed below are the foundations:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Financial Evaluation (BEA) reviews two consecutive quarters of damaging GDP progress in america inside the calendar 12 months 2024, primarily based on the seasonally adjusted annual fee. This consists of any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-This fall. The willpower can be primarily based on essentially the most lately launched report by the BEA for every quarter.
If GDP information for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised earlier than the discharge of the Advance Estimate for This fall, the newest revision obtainable can be used for market decision as a substitute of the preliminary Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the discharge of the This fall Advance Estimate is not going to be thought of for any quarters, together with This fall itself.
The first decision supply for this market is the BEA’s official information on the seasonally adjusted annualized % change in quarterly US actual GDP, as obtainable on their web site. A consensus of credible reporting may be used if there’s ambiguity within the official information.
