From NYT:
China launched two days of army drills surrounding Taiwan on Thursday in what it known as a “strong punishment” to its opponents on the self-governing island, after Taiwan’s new president pledged to defend its sovereignty.
Map from the article:
Right here’s the disposition of US naval forces, approximate as of 20 Might 2024.
Supply: USNI FleetTracker, accessed 23 Might 24.
Caldara and Iacoviello month-to-month GPR index for Taiwan (via April):
Supply: Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) index.
The presidential election was in January. Might estimate not included.
Blackrock has its personal index, however final publication was a month in the past.
Supply: BlackRock, 25 April 2024.
Evaluation of market impacts of upper threat:
Supply: BlackRock, 25 April 2024.
Sadly, within the absence of excessive frequency GPRs (as we have now for the world, from Caldara and Iacoviello), we’ll have to attend till subsequent month to search out out the impression on measured threat.
As mentioned on this submit, a blockade is more likely than an outright invasion (no less than within the close to future), whereas nonetheless reaching the target of wreaking great financial injury.
