Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade”. I believed it helpful to have a look at the information:
First the ten 12 months Treasury yield.
Determine 1: Ten 12 months Treasury yields, % (blue). NBER outlined peak to trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: Treasury by way of FRED, Shiller database, CBO (January 2025), and creator’s calculations.
I’d say it ill-advised to take the pattern imply from 1982-2007 as consultant. Right here’s the unfold.
Determine 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury unfold, % (blue). NBER outlined peak to trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: Treasury by way of FRED, NBER historic collection, Shiller database, CBO (January 2025), and creator’s calculations.
