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PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.8% YoY in November

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by Calculated Threat on 12/20/2024 09:09:00 AM

Here’s a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, each by way of November 2024.

CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.8% YoY in November, down from 5.0% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are largely flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly proceed to say no over the following yr.

PCE Prices 6-Month AnnualizedThe second graph reveals PCE costs, Core PCE costs and Core ex-housing over the past 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are barely beneath the Fed’s goal on a 3-month foundation. Notice: There seems to be some residual seasonality distorting PCE costs in Q1, particularly in January.

3-month annualized change:

PCE Value Index: 2.1%
Core PCE Costs: 2.5%
Core minus Housing: 2.3%

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