Reader Michael writes:
…excessive revenue wage progress has grown a lot sooner than medium and low revenue wage progress patterns.
Right here’s a stab at looking on the information. First wages:
Determine 1: 12 months-on-12 months progress price in common hourly earnings from CES (blue), common wage from CPS (inexperienced), median wage from CPS (tan), from 2nd quintile (crimson), all in %. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, Philadelphia Fed Wage Tracker, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
What about relative to inflation? Right here, one would attempt to match up with probably the most applicable deflators. Right here’s my try.
Determine 2: 12 months-on-12 months progress price in common hourly earnings from CES, deflated by CPI-U (blue), common wage from CPS, deflated by CPI-wage earners (inexperienced), median wage from CPS, deflated by median family revenue CPI (tan), from 2nd quintile deflated by 2nd quintile family revenue CPI (crimson), all in %. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, Philadelphia Fed Wage Tracker, BLS, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
So year-on-year actual wage progress has been constructive from between 2022M10 to 2023M02 onward.
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