by Calculated Danger on 10/17/2024 10:00:00 AM
The Nationwide Affiliation of Residence Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 43, up from 41 final month. Any quantity under 50 signifies that extra builders view gross sales circumstances as poor than good.
From the NAHB:
Builder Confidence Edges Greater Regardless of Affordability Headwinds
With inflation step by step easing and builders anticipating mortgage charges will average in coming months, builder sentiment moved larger for a second consecutive month regardless of difficult affordability circumstances.
Builder confidence out there for newly constructed single-family properties was 43 in October, up two factors from a studying of 41 in September, in keeping with the Nationwide Affiliation of Residence Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) launched right now.
“While housing affordability remains low, builders are feeling more optimistic about 2025 market conditions,” mentioned NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a customized residence builder from Wichita, Kan. “The wild card for the outlook remains the election, and with housing policy a top tier issue for candidates, policymakers should be focused on supply-side solutions to the housing crisis.”
“Despite the beginning of the Fed’s easing cycle, many prospective home buyers remain on the sideline waiting for lower interest rates,” mentioned NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “We are forecasting uneven declines for mortgage interest rates in the coming quarters, which will improve housing demand but place stress on building lot supplies due to tight lending conditions for development and construction loans.”
The newest HMI survey additionally revealed that the share of builders slicing costs held regular at 32% in October, the identical fee as final month. In the meantime, the common value discount returned to the long-term development of 6% after dropping to five% in September. Using gross sales incentives was 62% in October, barely up from 61% in September.
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All three HMI indices have been up in October. The index charting present gross sales circumstances rose two factors to 47, the element measuring gross sales expectations within the subsequent six months elevated 4 factors to 57 and the gauge charting visitors of potential patrons posted a two-point acquire to 29.Wanting on the three-month shifting averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast elevated two factors to 51, the Midwest moved two factors larger to 41, the South held regular at 41 and the West elevated three factors to 41.
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
This graph exhibits the NAHB index since Jan 1985.
This was barely above the consensus forecast.
