Non-public Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures In contrast

ADP stunned on the upside (143K vs 124K consensus):

Undecided what this implies, however ADP is outstripping the official sequence, which is itself above the preliminary benchmark.

Determine 1: Non-public nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), preliminary benchmark (mild blue), ADP-Stanford (inexperienced), QCEW (pink), change from 2023M01, in 000’s, s.a. QCEW seasonally adjusted utilizing X-13 in logs. Supply: BLS, ADP by way of FRED, and writer’s calculations. 

Determine 2: Non-public nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), preliminary benchmark (mild blue), ADP-Stanford (inexperienced), QCEW (pink), change from 2023M01, in logs. QCEW seasonally adjusted utilizing X-13 in logs. Supply: BLS, ADP by way of FRED, and writer’s calculations.