by Calculated Danger on 9/27/2024 09:15:00 AM
Here’s a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, each by August 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 5.2% year-over-year in August, up from 5.0 in July, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are principally flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly proceed to say no over the following 12 months.
The second graph exhibits PCE costs, Core PCE costs and Core ex-housing over the past 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are barely under the Fed’s goal on a 3-month foundation. Observe: There seems to be some residual seasonality distorting PCE costs in Q1, particularly in January.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Value Index: 1.5%
Core PCE Costs: 2.1%
Core minus Housing: 1.5%
