Right here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of right this moment:
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Abstract of Financial Projections median (inverted mild inexperienced triangle), GDPNow as of 9/18 (mild blue sq.), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (pink triangle), FT-Sales space as of 9/14 (blue sq.), and August median SPF (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Ranges calculated by iterating development price on ranges of GDP, apart from Survey of Skilled Forecasters. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and writer’s calculations.
One can see how the nowcasts have advanced by trying on the implied trajectories with intervening weeks.
Determine 2: GDP (daring black), GDPNow as of 9/18 (mild blue sq.), as of 9/6 (mild blue sq.), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (darkish pink line), as of 9/13 (mild pink line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Ranges calculated by iterating development price on ranges of GDP. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and writer’s calculations.
