Jay Powell’s huge week

Hiya and welcome to the working week.

The week forward is a big one for central banks on each side of the pond, with the Federal Reserve and the Financial institution of England every set to announce rate of interest selections. First up on Wednesday is the Fed, the place it might appear the query is now not if there will likely be a fee minimize, however somewhat by how a lot.

Whereas markets on Friday ascribed a 57 per cent likelihood to a quarter-point minimize, buyers had sharply elevated their bets on a half-percentage-point rate of interest, because the US central financial institution makes strikes to decrease borrowing prices for the primary time in additional than 4 years.

Knowledge launched final Tuesday confirmed that US inflation fell to 2.5 per cent in August. “Disinflation is an imperfect journey but it’s certainly happening,” Kristina Hooper, chief world market strategist at Invesco, informed the FT final week.

Within the UK, my colleague Valentina Romei reported that public confidence within the BoE’s technique to deal with inflation took a constructive flip in August, for the primary time in additional than two years, in keeping with official information forward of the financial institution’s fee resolution that may happen on Thursday.

Markets largely anticipate the BoE to maintain UK charges on maintain, however underwhelming figures from final Tuesday’s GDP report for July have barely elevated the chances of a fee minimize. Earlier this month, Michael Saunders, senior financial adviser at Oxford Economics and a former exterior member of the BoE’s Financial Coverage Committee, theorised that the UK’s rate-cutting cycle could possibly be faster than anticipated. He concluded that “market pricing currently implies that Bank Rate will fall to about 3.75% at end-2025 and stay around 3.5% thereafter”.

In firms information, we are able to anticipate half-year outcomes from B&Q and Screwfix proprietor Kingfisher, Q3 outcomes from on-line grocery retailer Ocado and half-year outcomes from clothes retailer Subsequent.

Yet one more factor . . . 

Tech lovers who’re unable to launch themselves from the ever-tight shackles of Apple merchandise ought to brace themselves for the vary of recent gadgets that may hit shops on Friday, together with the iPhone 16, Apple Watch Sequence 10 and AirPods 4. The corporate got here beneath fireplace earlier this 12 months for its alleged use of illegally exported minerals from the war-torn east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. On the time, Apple’s disclosures mentioned the corporate had “no reasonable basis for concluding” that any of its tin, tungsten and tantalum smelters or refiners “directly or indirectly financed” armed teams within the DRC or adjoining nations.

Apple has been increasing its use of recycled supplies in its merchandise to scale back its consumption of such metals and minerals, which we hope has been mirrored within the launch of its “most innovative line-up yet”.

Key financial and firm experiences

Here’s a extra full record of what to anticipate by way of firm experiences and financial information this week.

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

• UK: BoE fee resolution

• US: Preliminary jobless claims

• Enterprise insights and influence on the UK financial system statistics

• UK: Annual financial savings statistics

• Outcomes: Subsequent HY, FedEx Q1

Friday

• UK: Public sector funds

• UK: Month-to-month retail gross sales figures

• Japan: Financial coverage assembly resolution

• US Labor Division, Bureau of Labor Statistics: State Employment and Unemployment, month-to-month report (Aug 2024)

World occasions

Lastly, here’s a rundown of different occasions and milestones this week.

Monday

Tuesday

• Monetary Instances and Schroders Enterprise Ebook of the 12 months shortlist introduced Atone for the longlist right here.

• Italy: Milan Vogue Week begins

• UK: Inaugural Sky Arts Awards

Wednesday

Thursday

• UK: BMW PGA Championship will get beneath method

• UN Safety Council discusses Israeli settlements

• St Kitts and Nevis: Independence Day

Friday

• US: First states start early in-person voting in presidential election

• UK: Reform chief Nigel Farage speaks at his occasion’s nationwide convention

• Brazil: G20 tourism ministers assembly

Saturday

• Sri Lanka: presidential election the place current polls have projected a robust displaying for Folks’s Liberation Entrance chief Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

• US: Republican VP nominee JD Vance speaks at Tucker Carlson Stay Tour cease in Pennsylvania

• World Alzheimer’s Day

Sunday

• UK: Labour occasion convention commences

• UN Summit of the Future begins

• Singapore: F1 Grand Prix

• US: NYC Local weather Week begins