by Calculated Danger on 9/13/2024 09:16:00 AM
Right now, within the Calculated Danger Actual Property E-newsletter: Half 1: Present State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2024
A quick excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-September gives a snapshot of the present housing market.
I all the time focus first on stock, since stock normally tells the story!
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Here’s a graph of latest itemizing from Realtor.com’s August 2024 Month-to-month Housing Market Traits Report exhibiting new listings have been down 0.9% year-over-year in August. New listings are nonetheless properly under pre-pandemic ranges. From Realtor.com:Similar to patrons, sellers pulled again this August as newly listed houses have been 0.9% under final yr’s ranges and a reversal from July’s 8.4% acquire. This breaks a nine-month streak of accelerating itemizing exercise. We expect the sharp lower in mortgage charges seen in mid-August may result in a rise in listings within the coming months as decrease charges start to entice the marginal home-owner to promote.
Observe the seasonality for brand new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the yr for brand new listings, adopted by February and November. New listings might be up year-over-year in 2024, however nonetheless under regular ranges.
There are all the time folks that must promote as a result of so-called 3 D’s: Loss of life, Divorce, and Illness. Additionally, in sure occasions, some householders might want to promote as a result of unemployment or extreme debt. Neither is way of a difficulty proper now, besides presumably in Florida with very costly home-owner’s insurance coverage (as a result of impacts from local weather change), and particular assessments for apartment house owners as a result of deferred upkeep.
And there are householders who wish to promote for various causes: upsizing (extra infants), downsizing, transferring for a brand new job, or transferring to a nicer house or location (move-up patrons). It’s a few of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs during the last couple of years, since it’s financially tough to maneuver when your present mortgage charge is round 3%, and your new mortgage charge will round 6.15%.
However time is an element for this “want to sell” group, and ultimately a few of them will make the leap. And early information suggests new listings might be up year-over-year in September.
There’s far more within the article.
