by Calculated Threat on 9/11/2024 04:02:00 PM
The BLS reported this morning:
The Shopper Value Index for City Wage Earners and Clerical Employees (CPI-W) elevated 2.4 % over the
final 12 months to an index stage of 308.640 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index was unchanged previous to
seasonal adjustment.
CPI-W is the index that’s used to calculate the Price-Of-Residing Changes (COLA). The calculation dates have modified over time (see Price-of-Residing Changes), however the present calculation makes use of the typical CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the typical for the very best earlier common of Q3 months. Notice: this isn’t the headline CPI-U and isn’t seasonally adjusted (NSA).
• In 2023, the Q3 common of CPI-W was 301.236.
The 2023 Q3 common was the very best Q3 common, so we solely have to match Q3 this yr to final yr.
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
This graph reveals CPI-W since January 2000. The crimson strains are the Q3 common of CPI-W for annually.
Notice: The yr labeled is for the calculation, and the adjustment is efficient for December of that yr (acquired by beneficiaries in January of the next yr).
CPI-WÂ was up 2.4% year-over-year in August, and though that is early – we’d like the info for July, August and September – my guess is COLA will in all probability be round 2.4% this yr, the smallest enhance since 1.3% in 2021.
Contribution and Profit Base
The contribution base will likely be adjusted utilizing the Nationwide Common Wage Index. That is primarily based on a one-year lag. The Nationwide Common Wage Index will not be out there for 2023 but, though we all know wages elevated solidly in 2023. If wages elevated 5% in 2023, then the contribution base subsequent yr will enhance to round $177,000 in 2025, from the present $168,600.
Keep in mind – that is an early look. What issues is common CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).
