All present positive factors since January 2023, save the CPS primarily based.
Determine 1: Cumulative change in NFP employment based on CES (daring black), implied preliminary benchmark (blue), early benchmark (tan), Goldman Sachs estimate (mild blue sq.), CPS adjusted to NFP idea (teal), QCEW complete coated, nsa (darkish crimson), and QCEW seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13 (in logs) (salmon), all in 000’s. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Word that the CPS collection adjusted to NFP will probably be downwardly biased if the general CPS collection is downwardly biased. That is possible the case, as mentioned right here.
so… not but time to panic about recession, not less than by NFP employment figures.
